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We hypothesized that this would allow us to build a model that can predict outcomes with some hours of lead-time before the event. Episodes with more than one ICU transfer were split into separate episodes starting at the time when the patient was transferred back to the ward or TCU. We split the dataset randomly into 3 parts: (a) Training 1: used for variable selection and model fitting, containing 75 of the episodes with HET in 2010 and 2011 and 37.

5 of the episodes with HET in 2012 and 2013; (b) Training 2: used to compare model performance and select a final model from the Training 1 models set. It contained 25 of the episodes with HET in 2010 and 2011 and 12.